| Univariate analysis | Multivariate analysis (MLM) | ||
---|---|---|---|---|
Characteristic: | Odds ratio (95% CI) | P = | Odds ratio (95% CI) | P = |
Age (years) | 1.06 (1.06-1.06) | <0.001 | 1.05 (1.05-1.05) | <0.001 |
Gender: female | 1.00 (reference) | - | 1.00 (reference) | - |
Gender: male | 1.21 (1.13-1.31) | <0.001 | 1.24 (1.14-1.36) | <0.001 |
Ethnicity | Â | Â | Â | Â |
White | 1.00 (reference) | - | - | - |
Mixed | 0.61 (0.41-0.92) | 0.019 | - | - |
Asian | 1.00 (0.99-1.01) | 0.488 | - | - |
Black | 0.98 (0.97-1.00) | 0.016 | - | - |
Other | 0.95 (0.80-1.13) | 0.591 | - | - |
Missing | 1.02 (0.94-1.11) | 0.640 | - | - |
Smoking Status | Â | Â | Â | Â |
Not recorded | 1.18 (1.07-1.31) | 0.002 | 0.95 (0.84-1.08) | 0.472 |
Never smoked | 1.00 (reference) | - | 1.00 (reference) | - |
Current Smoker | 1.39 (1.24-1.57) | <0.001 | 1.38 (1.24-1.54) | <0.001 |
Ex-smoker | 1.82 (1.61-2.06) | <0.001 | 1.18 (1.05-1.32) | 0.005 |
Alcohol Consumption | Â | Â | Â | Â |
Not recorded | 0.93 (0.85-1.01) | 0.090 | 1.07 (0.96-1.20) | 0.223 |
No alcohol | 1.00 (reference) | - | 1.00 (reference) | - |
Light alcohol | 0.87 (0.79-0.96) | 0.004 | 0.88 (0.79-0.97) | 0.013 |
Excess alcohol | 1.04 (0.87-1.23) | 0.688 | 1.24 (1.03-1.49) | 0.024 |
Previous excess alcohol | 1.16 (0.66-2.02) | 0.610 | 1.04 (0.56-1.93) | 0.895 |
Comorbidities | Â | Â | Â | Â |
BMI (kg/m2) | 1.01 (0.99-1.02) | 0.276 | - | - |
Heart failure | 3.39 (2.99-3.83) | <0.001 | 1.30 (1.13-1.49) | <0.001 |
Dialysis | 3.03 (1.88-4.89) | <0.001 | 1.76 (1.04-2.99) | 0.036 |
Stroke | 3.96 (3.49-4.48) | <0.001 | 2.26 (1.98-2.59) | <0.001 |
Transient ischaemic attack | 3.27 (2.82-3.79) | <0.001 | 1.58 (1.34-1.86) | <0.001 |
Ischaemic heart disease | 3.03 (2.80-3.27) | <0.001 | 1.64 (1.47-1.84) | <0.001 |
Coronary artery operation | 2.63 (2.35-2.94) | <0.001 | 1.26 (1.09-1.44) | 0.001 |
Myocardial infarction | 2.88 (2.56-3.24) | <0.001 | 1.23 (1.06-1.42) | 0.005 |
Investigations | Â | Â | Â | Â |
ACR: not monitored | 0.77 (0.71-0.84) | <0.001 | 1.33 (1.19-1.50) | <0.001 |
ACR: normal | 1.00 (reference) | - | 1.00 (reference) | - |
ACR: microalbuminuria | 1.46 (1.31-1.62) | <0.001 | 1.16 (1.01-1.32) | 0.034 |
ACR: macroalbuminuria | 2.70 (2.26-3.23) | <0.001 | 2.32 (1.88-2.86) | <0.001 |
HbA1c: not measured | 0.99 (0.98-1.01) | 0.226 | - | - |
HbA1c: < 7.5% | 1.00 (reference) | - | - | - |
HbA1c: > 7.5% | 1.16 (1.01-1.33) | 0.224 | - | - |
Total cholesterol: not monitored | 0.89 (0.76-1.05) | 0.160 | - | - |
Total cholesterol: < 5.0Â mmol/l | 1.00 (reference) | - | - | - |
Total cholesterol: > 5.0Â mmol/l | 0.88 (0.74-1.04) | 0.134 | - | - |
LDL cholesterol: not monitored | 1.13 (1.05-1.22) | 0.002 | 1.23 (1.08-1.40) | 0.002 |
LDL cholesterol: normal | 1.00 (reference) | - | 1.00 (reference) | - |
LDL cholesterol: high | 0.85 (0.75-0.96) | 0.007 | 1.15 (1.01-1.31) | 0.030 |
HDL cholesterol: not monitored | 1.09 (0.98-1.20) | 0.106 | 1.19 (1.02-1.39) | 0.025 |
HDL cholesterol: normal | 1.00 (reference) | - | 1.00 (reference) | - |
HDL cholesterol: low | 1.13 (1.02-1.25) | 0.022 | 1.17 (1.05-1.31) | 0.006 |
Multilevel model performance: | Â | Random effects: | Â | |
Bayesian information criteria (BIC) | 19022 | Intercepts for GP practice: | ||
Log-likelihood | -9312 | Variance | 0.111 | |
ROC curve statistic | 0.767 | Standard deviation | 0.334 |