Fig. 1

a The distributions of predicted risk of ESRD among persons with hypertension. The distributions of predicted risk of ESRD among subjects who did not develop ESRD (non-progressors) in a given time frame is shown by the blue line and subjects who progressed to ESRD (progressors) in that time frame is represented by the red line. We considered four time frames - 1 year, and 3, 5 and 7 years. 80 % of the ESRD progressors are to the right of the vertical solid grey line (q80), and 90 % of them are to the right of the vertical dashed grey line (q90). The risk predictions are based on application of a proportional hazards regression model incorporating age, race, sex, eGFR and dipstick proteinuria to the validation dataset. b The distributions of predicted risk of ESRD among persons with severe CKD (eGFR < 30 ml/min/1.73 m²). The distributions of predicted risk of ESRD among subjects who did not develop ESRD (non-progressors) in a given time frame is shown by the blue line and subjects who progressed to ESRD (progressors) in that time frame is represented by the red line. We considered four time frames - 1 year, and 3, 5 and 7 years. 80 % of the ESRD progressors are to the right of the vertical solid grey line (q80), and 90 % of them are to the right of the vertical dashed grey line (q90). The risk predictions are based on application of a proportional hazards regression model incorporating age, race, sex, eGFR and dipstick proteinuria to the validation dataset