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Table 2 Comparison of calibration performances of existing KFRE equations and recalibrated KFRE equations at 5-year and 2-year risks of end-stage kidney disease

From: Validation of the kidney failure risk equation for end-stage kidney disease in Southeast Asia

 

KFRE equations

Brier scorea (square root)

Biasa (95% CI)

Precisiona

5-year risk

 Existing KFRE equations

Original KFRE [17]

6.2%

4.5% (− 1.4–5.9%)

4.3%

Original KFRE calibrated for north American [17]

4.8%

4.1% (0.2–5.8%)

2.6%

Original KFRE calibrated for non-north American [17]

7.2%

4.8% (− 2.8–7.6%)

4.3%

Pooled KFRE [17]

4.0%

3.3% (− 0.1–6.7%)

1.7%

 Recalibrated KFRE equations

Recalibrated Original KFRE SEA 1b

9.3%

5.1% (− 6.9–12.0%)

5.1%

Recalibrated Original KFRE SEA 2c

7.9%

5.2% (−4.4–9.6%)

5.2%

Recalibrated Pooled KFRE SEAd

2.8%

2.5% (−2.0–4.5%)

0.5%

2-year risk

 Existing KFRE equations

Original KFRE [17]

7.9%

3.4% (−7.8–11.2%)

3.8%

Original KFRE calibrated for north American [17]

7.9%

3.4% (− 7.8–11.2%)

3.8%

Original KFRE calibrated for non-north American [17]

9.1%

3.5% (−10.4%-13.95)

4.2%

Pooled KFRE [17]

7.9%

3.2% (−8.7–11.9%)

3.5%

 Recalibrated KFRE equations

Recalibrated Original KFRE SEA 1e

9.0%

3.5% (−10.0–13.5%)

4.1%

Recalibrated Original KFRE SEA 2f

6.1%

3.6% (−5.1–8.7%)

3.9%

Recalibrated Pooled KFRE SEAg

2.0%

1.8% (−1.7–3.5%)

0.5%

  1. aBrier score is calculated as the squared difference of mean observed minus predicted risks. Bias is calculated as the observed minus predicted risks. Precision is the interquartile range of the bias. The KFRE equation with a lower score of all three metrics is the best-calibrated equation
  2. bThe Recalibrated Original KFRE SEA 1 at 5-year ESKD risk was calculated as: 1–0.9595 ^ exp. (− 0.2201 × (age/10–7.036) + 0.2467 × (male – 0.5642) – 0.5567 × (eGFR/5–7.222) + 0.4510 × (logACR – 5.137))
  3. cThe Recalibrated Original KFRE SEA 2 at 5-year ESKD risk was calculated as: 1–0.9595 ^ exp. (− 0.4734 × (age/10–7.036) + 0.0119 × (male – 0.5642) – 0.6990 × (eGFR/5–7.222) + 0.6159 × (logACR – 5.137))
  4. dThe Recalibrated Pooled KFRE SEA at 5-year ESKD risk was calculated as: 1–0.8362 ^ exp. (− 0.2245 × (age/10–7.036) + 0.3212 × (male – 0.5642) – 0.4553 × (eGFR/5–7.222) + 0.4469 × (logACR – 5.137))
  5. eThe Recalibrated Original KFRE SEA 1 at 2-year ESKD risk was calculated as: 1–0.9822 ^ exp. (− 0.2201 × (age/10–7.036) + 0.2467 × (male – 0.5642) – 0.5567 × (eGFR/5–7.222) + 0.4510 × (logACR – 5.137))
  6. fThe Recalibrated Original KFRE SEA 2 at 2-year ESKD risk was calculated as: 1–0.9822 ^ exp. (− 0.4416 × (age/10–7.036) – 0.0723 × (male – 0.5642) – 0.8232 × (eGFR/5–7.222) + 0.5418 × (logACR – 5.137))
  7. gThe Recalibrated Pooled KFRE SEA at 2-year ESKD risk was calculated as: 1–0.8976 ^ exp. (− 0.2245 × (age/10–7.036) + 0.3212 × (male – 0.5642) – 0.4553 × (eGFR/5–7.222) + 0.4469 × (logACR – 5.137))
  8. Abbreviations: CI confidence interval, ESKD end-stage kidney disease, KFRE Kidney Failure Risk Equation, SEA Southeast Asia