Table 5 Performance of our risk scores in the prediction of incident CKD in the validation population
Scores | Risk factors in the score | AUC | Optimal cutoff value | Sensitivity | Specificity | +LR | -LR | +PV | -PV | Youden index | Hosmer and Lemeshow Test |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Simple risk score | Sex, education, WC, diabetes, SBP. | 0.717 (0.689–0.744) | > 14 | 70.49 (63.30–77.00) | 65.14 (61.90–68.30) | 2.02 (1.80–2.30) | 0.45 (0.40–0.60) | 29.8 (25.5–34.4) | 91.3 (88.8–93.4) | 0.3563 | 0.769 |
Best-fit risk score | Sex, education, diabetes, SBP, triglycerides, CRP, UACR. | 0.721 (0.693–0.748) | > 24 | 56.83 (49.30–64.10) | 76.61 (73.70–79.40) | 2.43 (2.00–2.90) | 0.56 (0.50–0.70) | 33.8 (28.5–39.3) | 89.4 (87.0–91.5) | 0.3344 | 0.961 |