Table 2 Final flexible parametric model fitted to combined derivation and validation dataset showing coefficients for each of the 3 spline terms for the baseline hazard function and hazard ratios for significant predictors of post-transplant patient survival (N = 12,283)

Baseline hazard (log hazard scale)

Coefficient

p-value

 Restricted cubic spline 1

1.03

<0.001

0.97

-

1.09

 Restricted cubic spline 2

-0.08

0.001

-0.12

-

-0.03

 Restricted cubic spline 3

-0.14

<0.001

-0.16

-

-0.12

 Constant

-3.97

<0.001

-4.31

-

-3.63

Hazard ratio

p-value

Recipient age

 18-29

Baseline

 30-39

1.15

0.423

0.81

-

1.64

 40-49

1.79

<0.001

1.29

-

2.48

 50-59

3.22

<0.001

2.35

-

4.43

 > = 60

6.56

<0.001

4.79

-

8.98

Recipient gender

 Male

Baseline

 Female

0.89

0.028

0.80

-

0.99

Pre-emptive transplant

 No

Baseline

 Yes

0.66

<0.001

0.53

-

0.82

Primary renal diagnosis

 Glomerulonephritis

Baseline

 Diabetic nephropathy (type 1)

2.24

<0.001

1.84

-

2.73

 Diabetic nephropathy (type 2)

1.59

0.001

1.21

-

2.09

 Polycystic kidney disease

0.81

0.056

0.65

-

1.01

 Other

1.28

0.007

1.07

-

1.53

 Not reported

1.28

0.004

1.08

-

1.52

Donor hypertension

 No

Baseline

 Yes

1.27

<0.001

1.12

-

1.44

 Not reported

1.20

0.023

1.03

-

1.42

Donor age

 < 40

Baseline

 40-49

1.26

0.004

1.08

-

1.48

 50-59

1.26

0.003

1.08

-

1.47

 > = 60

1.48

<0.001

1.26

-

1.74