Table 1 Observed and forecasted values for selected yearsa
2009 | 2014 | 2015 | 2020 | 2025 | APC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Period (2015–2025) | ||||||
Number of NJUEBMI population (No.) (Linear Trend)b | 2,032,074 | 2,968,697 | 3,156,022 | 4,092,646 | 5,029,270 | 4.77 % |
2,050,731 | 2,921,065 | (3,087,175–3,224,869) | (4,023,799–4,161,493) | (4,960,423–5,098,117) | ||
Incidence (pmp) | ||||||
All ESRD (Linear Trend) | 205.9 | 219.8 | 222.6 | 236.5 | 250.5 | 1.19 % |
206.8 | 218.8 | (219.8–225.4) | (233.7–239.4) | (247.7–253.3) | ||
HD (Linear Trend) | 171.5 | 183.5 | 185.9 | 197.9 | 209.9 | 1.22 % |
171.2 | 182.5 | (184.2–187.6) | (196.2–199.6) | (208.2–211.7) | ||
PD (Damped Trend Exponential Smoothing) | 22.0 | 27.9 | 28.9 | 34.3 | 39.8 | 3.25 % |
22.4 | 27.4 | (26.9–30.9) | (32.0–36.6) | (37.2–42.3) | ||
Kidney Transplant (Log Linear (Holt) Exponential Smoothing) | 12.4 | 8.6 | 8.1 | 5.8 | 4.1 | −6.58 % |
13.2 | 8.9 | (7.0–9.4) | (4.9–6.7) | (3.4–5.0) | ||
Prevalence (pmp) | ||||||
All ESRD (Linear Trend) | 1083 | 1215 | 1241 | 1373 | 1505 | 1.95 % |
1083 | 1228 | (1186–1297) | (1318–1428) | (1450–1560) | ||
HD (Damped Trend Exponential Smoothing) | 815.9 | 928.8 | 967.4 | 1070 | 1128 | 1.55 % |
820.2 | 942.5 | (915.4–1019) | (765.5–1374) | (529.1–1727) | ||
PD (Linear Trend) | 74.0 | 120.6 | 129.9 | 176.6 | 223.2 | 5.56 % |
71.7 | 125.3 | (124.5–135.4) | (171.1–182.0) | (217.7–228.7) | ||
Kidney Transplant (Linear Trend) | 195.7 | 150.3 | 141.2 | 95.8 | 50.4 | −9.79 % |
190.7 | 160.6 | (128.6–153.8) | (83.2–108.4) | (37.8–63.0) | ||
Health care costs (¥, in millions) | ||||||
All ESRD (Linear (Holt) Exponential Smoothing) | 172.0 | 318.9 | 341.5 | 470.9 | 600.3 | 5.80 % |
168.5 | 315.6 | (323.9–359.0) | (427.7–514.1) | (541.8–658.9) | ||
HD (Linear Trend) | 160.5 | 271.7 | 294.0 | 405.3 | 516.5 | 5.80 % |
153.5 | 275.5 | (279.3–308.7) | (390.6–419.9) | (501.9–531.2) | ||
PD (Damped Trend Exponential Smoothing) | 7.8 | 32.2 | 34.1 | 45.9 | 54.6 | 4.82 % |
10.5 | 31.1 | (30.1–38.1) | (18.3–73.5) | (−4.0–113.2) | ||
Kidney Transplant (Linear Trend) | 5.3 | 9.0 | 9.8 | 13.5 | 17.3 | 5.85 % |
4.5 | 9.0 | (8.6–10.9) | (12.4–14.7) | (16.1–18.4) | ||
Per capita medical expenses (¥, in thousands) | ||||||
All ESRD (Logistic Linear Trend) | 76.1 | 90.3 | 92.1 | 97.1 | 99.0 | 7.25‰ |
75.9 | 87.9 | (89.2–94.2) | (96.0–97.9) | (98.6–99.3) | ||
HD (Linear (Holt) Exponential Smoothing) | 88.7 | 104.7 | 106.5 | 120.8 | 135.0 | 2.40 % |
91.2 | 100.1 | (98.8–114.3) | (112.2–129.4) | (125.7–144.4) | ||
PD (Logistic Linear Trend) | 68.2 | 92.3 | 94.4 | 98.9 | 99.8 | 5.58‰ |
71.3 | 84.9 | (84.9–98.1) | (96.9–99.6) | (99.4–99.9) | ||
Kidney Transplant (Linear Trend) | 12.7 | 20.5 | 22.1 | 29.9 | 37.8 | 5.51 % |
11.6 | 19.2 | (19.6–24.5) | (27.5–32.4) | (35.3–40.2) | ||