Fig. 5

Receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curve analyses for the expression of the CTLA-4sol at day 15. Prediction of aTCMR episodes within the 1st year in the whole cohort of patients (stable transplantation n=67, acute cellular rejection episodes n=6) and in those receiving only mycophenolic acid (n=63). 1) AUC=0.749, p=0.016 95%CI=0.634-0.843. Younden’s index threshold showed for solCTLA-4 log criterion values > -0.05 a prediction of acute rejection with sensitivity of 83.3% and specificity of 56.7%. 2) AUC=0.894, p<0.000 95%CI=0.791-0.953. solCTLA-4 15 days, Younden’s criterion for values > 0.13 a prediction of acute rejection with sensitivity of 100.0% and specificity of 71.2%